Cebu City’s Covid cases continue to rise–research group

THE number of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) cases in Cebu City has continued to rise, and if not prevented, would push its hospital capacity to critical levels in two weeks, according to the academic group that tracks the country’s virus data.

Octa Research cited that from February 1 to 7, Cebu City has averaged 123 new cases of Covid-19 per day, 30 percent higher than the 94 cases recorded in the previous period of January 25 to 31. Its positivity rate has increased to 10 percent and its attack rate now at 11.11 per 100,000 population.

Aside from Cebu City, Mandaue City and Lapu Lapu City are also experiencing an increasing trend in the number of Covid-19 cases, with positivity rates above 10 percent.

The group has also warned that the hospital occupancy in Cebu province may reach up to 70 percent in two weeks if current transmission rate of R0 (R-naught) of 1.4 and a hospitalization rate of 25 to 35 percent hold.

Octa said that the increase in the number of cases in the city may be attributed to the presence of the more infectious B117 variant, which was first detected in Liloan, Cebu.

But the Department of Health (DoH), while acknowledging the rise, does not want to conclude that the variant was the main cause of the increase.

“Hindi ho natin masasabi na variant lang ang cause, [Maaring] naka-aggravate or makasama sya sa (We can’t say that this variant is the main cause. There could be other things that could have aggravated it or there were other) factors but the new variant is not the only cause of the numbers increasing in Cebu, marami pa pong factors yan (there are still a lot of factors to consider),” Vergeire said.

She said the rising trend could also be because of the gatherings held during the holiday season, as well as delays in consultation, in which some people would take three to five days to see a doctor after getting exposed to a close Covid contact.

Vergeire said that the One Hospital Command in Cebu City is managing the situation to prevent a possible surge in hospital care capacity.

Octa said the National Capital Region continues to see a flattening trend in the number of Covid-19 cases, despite having an R0 of 1.02 and having 360 average new cases per day.

Calabarzon and Central Luzon had decreased their positivity rate to 5 and 4 percent respectively, while Davao’s case numbers were also decreasing.

Calabarzon is Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon.

Source: ManilaTimes